Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease emerging in China in December 2019 that rapidly spread around that country and subsequently many others.  even with a sudden unexpected increase of official reported cases on 17 February 2020 due to a change in the World Health Organization guidelines to count cases . On 21 February 2020 COVID-19 started spreading locally around Italy. This country became the epicenter of COVID-19, which spread worldwide. WHO declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic on 11 March 2020 . To the best of our knowledge this fact was not forecasted for any scientific paper or report in early February 2020. The main reason is the above-mentioned bad quality of the official reported data, due in part to the fact that COVID-19 isa disease caused by a new virus, called SARS-CoV-2, which has generated a completely exceptional new world wide emergency situation

th model shows statistics of the pandemic mathematical growth, the model works with codes that generate values visualized az colored dots.

the Key scenarios of dynamics:

If, during 7 days of being infectious, a person passes to 1 person then the disease will not grow, i.e., number of infectious individuals stays the same.If, during 7 days of being infectious, a person passes to 2 or more people the disease grows, i.e.,number of infectious individuals grows If, during 7 days of being infectious, a person does not pass to another person (or, say 10 people are sick at exact same time and pass to 9 people over 7 days) the disease will reduce, i.e., number of sick individuals goes to zero.As individuals recover, the number of susceptible people decline, and therefore spread slows and eventually reduces to zero.